Tag Archives: Symbian

Microkia – Birth of a New Species? or Death of Old Ones?

Last Week Nokia announced that they were ditching their Symbian Smartphone OS in favor of Windows Mobile 7.  For those consumers who live, work and play in North America this announcement barely warrants a yawn.  For the rest of the world- the world in which Nokia has been the number one mobile device for what seems like forever – this is big news.

I was an “involved player” in the early formation of Symbian.  At the time a Palm-like device from Psion was dominant in Europe.  The three intelligent organizers (as they were called 14 years ago) came from Palm, Psion and Microsoft.  The conventional wisdom, at the time was to not allow Microsoft to establish a monopolistic stranglehold on mobile platforms, like it did in the PC.

From this strategy grew the Symbian operating system that was used primarily by Nokia and Ericsson. Symbian was based on the Psion OS.  During the BiCE (Before Iphone common era), the coolest smartphones were in Europe and ran Symbian.  Microsoft tried to continually adapt a desktop centric design philosophy to mobile devices.   They had very modest success, far less than their corporate ego would admit, externally or internally.

The good news is that the strategy worked.  Microsoft never established a monopolistic foothold in the mobile space.  The industry exchanged one dominant force for another. Apple and Google have established that position in this next generation.

In the AiCE (After iPhone Common Era) period the world changed.

Nokia’s dominance which was (is) based on great physical phone design, radio interfaces, button placement, and distribution, suddenly seemed less relevant.

The great Symbian operating system was like the  Neanderthals, once Homo-sapiens appeared.

A report released just 4 days ago listed Apple with a 45% share of Smartphones in Europe, followed by 16% for both Android and Blackberry.  Symbian had fallen to around 12%, and is in free fall.  Nokia’s Smartphone share in the largest Smartphone market (North America) is close to nil.  On a worldwide basis, Symbian  has just been eclipsed as the leader by Android with both around 30% share.

Against this backdrop, Steve Elop the CEO of Nokia and most recently a top executive at Microsoft, issued an internal Memo in which he likened the Nokia business to a burning oil platform with multiple fires. Great imagery! (His complete memo to the Nokia troops is at the bottom of this blog)

Meanwhile Microsoft has also been ablaze, except they continue a public stance of  “damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead”.  They seem to have temporarily righted their ship with Windows 7 sales, mainly because businesses refused to buy the disastrous Windows Vista.   They are becoming the Xerox of the new millennium- Lots of great ideas and ground breaking technologies,  with very poor execution.

I have mentioned in previous blog articles that the Windows 7 Mobile, on the surface looks like a viable technology. However, the product is very late to the party, is called “Windows”, and its marketing was linked to Zune (Do you have one?) and Xbox.  Good ideas, poor execution.

Against this backdrop, Steve Elop hooks up with his former Boss, Steve Balmer and the two sinking ships attempt to tie themselves together to stay afloat.  Nokia will have to navigate through the support issues for the millions of Symbian consumers and also there now seemingly aborted relationship with Intel on the Meego Smartphone platform.  Nokia is rationalizing themselves as a hardware platform vendor, not a software producer.  They are making a deal that seemed unthinkable for over a decade.  They have been pushed into a partnership with Microsoft by the success of Apple and Google.

The real winner is Microsoft.  Nokia is betting their Smartphone future with the Windows Platform and hoping that it turns around its plummeting Smartphone share.   Microsoft is risking much less because they have much less to risk in the mobile space.  They have a single digit of market share.  The announced Micorosoft relationship with the largest manufacturer of mobile devices, as they say, “Can’t hurt!”.

The integration and production of  “Microkia” phones will take at least 6 months and  more likely a year.  That’s another year of innovation and product releases from Apple and Google.

The Micorosft /Nokia combination must define a new class of Smartphone, perhaps aimed at developing markets , that is a clear differentiation from the highend iPhone and Droids.   Without a new Smartphone species, Microsoft and Nokia with continue to look like Neanderthals and suffer a similar fate.

——————————

Steven Elop – CEO of Nokia – Memo to his troops

Hello there,

There is a pertinent story about a man who was working on an oil platform in the North Sea. He woke up one night from a loud explosion, which suddenly set his entire oil platform on fire. In mere moments, he was surrounded by flames. Through the smoke and heat, he barely made his way out of the chaos to the platform’s edge. When he looked down over the edge, all he could see were the dark, cold, foreboding Atlantic waters.

As the fire approached him, the man had mere seconds to react. He could stand on the platform, and inevitably be consumed by the burning flames. Or, he could plunge 30 meters in to the freezing waters. The man was standing upon a “burning platform,” and he needed to make a choice.

He decided to jump. It was unexpected. In ordinary circumstances, the man would never consider plunging into icy waters. But these were not ordinary times – his platform was on fire. The man survived the fall and the waters. After he was rescued, he noted that a “burning platform” caused a radical change in his behaviour.

We too, are standing on a “burning platform,” and we must decide how we are going to change our behaviour.

Over the past few months, I’ve shared with you what I’ve heard from our shareholders, operators, developers, suppliers and from you. Today, I’m going to share what I’ve learned and what I have come to believe.

I have learned that we are standing on a burning platform.

And, we have more than one explosion – we have multiple points of scorching heat that are fuelling a blazing fire around us.

For example, there is intense heat coming from our competitors, more rapidly than we ever expected. Apple disrupted the market by redefining the smartphone and attracting developers to a closed, but very powerful ecosystem.

In 2008, Apple’s market share in the $300+ price range was 25 percent; by 2010 it escalated to 61 percent. They are enjoying a tremendous growth trajectory with a 78 percent earnings growth year over year in Q4 2010. Apple demonstrated that if designed well, consumers would buy a high-priced phone with a great experience and developers would build applications. They changed the game, and today, Apple owns the high-end range.

And then, there is Android. In about two years, Android created a platform that attracts application developers, service providers and hardware manufacturers. Android came in at the high-end, they are now winning the mid-range, and quickly they are going downstream to phones under €100. Google has become a gravitational force, drawing much of the industry’s innovation to its core.

Let’s not forget about the low-end price range. In 2008, MediaTek supplied complete reference designs for phone chipsets, which enabled manufacturers in the Shenzhen region of China to produce phones at an unbelievable pace. By some accounts, this ecosystem now produces more than one third of the phones sold globally – taking share from us in emerging markets.

While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time. At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind.

The first iPhone shipped in 2007, and we still don’t have a product that is close to their experience. Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes. Unbelievable.

We have some brilliant sources of innovation inside Nokia, but we are not bringing it to market fast enough. We thought MeeGo would be a platform for winning high-end smartphones. However, at this rate, by the end of 2011, we might have only one MeeGo product in the market.

At the midrange, we have Symbian. It has proven to be non-competitive in leading markets like North America. Additionally, Symbian is proving to be an increasingly difficult environment in which to develop to meet the continuously expanding consumer requirements, leading to slowness in product development and also creating a disadvantage when we seek to take advantage of new hardware platforms. As a result, if we continue like before, we will get further and further behind, while our competitors advance further and further ahead.

At the lower-end price range, Chinese OEMs are cranking out a device much faster than, as one Nokia employee said only partially in jest, “the time that it takes us to polish a PowerPoint presentation.” They are fast, they are cheap, and they are challenging us.

And the truly perplexing aspect is that we’re not even fighting with the right weapons. We are still too often trying to approach each price range on a device-to-device basis.

The battle of devices has now become a war of ecosystems, where ecosystems include not only the hardware and software of the device, but developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things. Our competitors aren’t taking our market share with devices; they are taking our market share with an entire ecosystem. This means we’re going to have to decide how we either build, catalyse or join an ecosystem.

This is one of the decisions we need to make. In the meantime, we’ve lost market share, we’ve lost mind share and we’ve lost time.

On Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s informed that they will put our A long term and A-1 short term ratings on negative credit watch. This is a similar rating action to the one that Moody’s took last week. Basically it means that during the next few weeks they will make an analysis of Nokia, and decide on a possible credit rating downgrade. Why are these credit agencies contemplating these changes? Because they are concerned about our competitiveness.

Consumer preference for Nokia declined worldwide. In the UK, our brand preference has slipped to 20 percent, which is 8 percent lower than last year. That means only 1 out of 5 people in the UK prefer Nokia to other brands. It’s also down in the other markets, which are traditionally our strongholds: Russia, Germany, Indonesia, UAE, and on and on and on.

How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world around us evolved?

This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive times. We had a series of misses. We haven’t been delivering innovation fast enough. We’re not collaborating internally.

Nokia, our platform is burning.

We are working on a path forward — a path to rebuild our market leadership. When we share the new strategy on February 11, it will be a huge effort to transform our company. But, I believe that together, we can face the challenges ahead of us. Together, we can choose to define our future.

The burning platform, upon which the man found himself, caused the man to shift his behaviour, and take a bold and brave step into an uncertain future. He was able to tell his story. Now, we have a great opportunity to do the same.

Stephen.

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Filed under android, Apple, blackberry, Google, iphone, microsoft, mobile, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, Nokia, smart phone, Smartphone, Windows, Windows Mobile, wireless

HP answers Palm Code Blue

New Icon on Palm Web OS Smartphone?

The Smartphone business has been very busy this week.  One day before Verizon officially releases the Droid Incredible (I am tracking mine via Federal Express), HP scoops in and acquires Palm.  Palm does have some pretty good technology and mobile handset know-how.  Do they have $1.2 Billion worth?  HP says yes and, anyway – that’s just a rounding error for them.

If you have seen the Web OS on Palm’s devices you have to be impressed.  Why this really makes sense for HP is that it is so much more than Smart Phones.  Perhaps you noticed that Apple iPad launch last month?  Tablet and netbook computing are the next disruptive technologies.   The Palm OS will likely make a bigger near term impact on HPs tablet and netbook devices.    This is not good news for Microsoft.

The OS landscape for the sub-laptop market is rapidly fragmenting.    Android from Google, Chrome OS (Google competing with itself?), Web OS from Palm, Apple OS4, Windows 7,  Windows 7 mobile,  RIM and Symbian (Nokia).   The environments that appear limited in scope are RIM and Windows 7 mobile (just SmartPhone) and Windows7, Chrome OS (Netbooks). Android, Palm Web OS, Apple OS and Symbian all provide (in theory) a unified sub-laptop platform.

What’s a developer to do?    Can an OS thrive with a single hardware vendor – Steve Jobs would certainly say yes, so why not HP?

The near term loser is likely Microsoft.  By the time they have Windows Mobile 7 devices in the market, HP/Palm should have been able to iterate an upgraded device and spend significant marketing bucks attracting both consumers and developers.

All of this competition is good for innovation and good for consumer price points.  It will take at least another 3-4 years for this market to shake out completely.  When the dust settles you can count on Apple and Microsoft still standing – their present overall positions in OS technology are virtually unassailable.  What will be interesting is their relative market strength in this very interesting sub-laptop market.

If you dominate this new market you are THE company for the next generation.

HP has placed their chips on the table.  Who is next?

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Filed under Acquisitions, blackberry, cloud computing, iPad, iphone, Ipod, microsoft, mobile, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, netbooks, Nokia, smart phone, Smartphone, Social Media, Verizon, wireless

Appvertainment from Jobs-Apple and the iAd

The announcement of iPhone OS4 changes the Smartphone  world – yet again.  As Steve Jobs described the 7 tent poles of the new iPhone/iTouch/Ipad OS, it was clear that the tent was not quite large enough for everyone. The center pole of this tent is clearly– iAds.

The raison-d’etre  for the much heralded multi-tasking feature is Appvertainment.  (e.g. iAds).    Do not be distracted by the fact that he introduced multi-tasking first and iAds last.  They are intimately linked.

Apple is pursuing their app centric  vs. search (Apple vs. Google) strategy for smartphones  through the introduction of their own OS integrated  ad serving technology.  Multi-tasking is the key component in this ad strategy to permit a user to return to an app after an ADHD moment is fulfilled by playing with a cool appvertainment.  Without multitasking you lose your application state/status and have to start over again.  Jobs is trying to change user behavior and reward users for clicking on an ad with an engaging experience, instead of punishing them by having them have to re-start their app.

Appvertainment targeting was not discussed. The social  and geolocation information that the host apps maintain on users will most likely be used for targeting purposes.  The Apple social game network API will no doubt  be used for providing this targeting information for game hosted appvertainments .    Apple is betting that App hosted ads will be valuable than Internet style search ads.

Jobs boosted that the Apple platforms would be capable of serving 1 billion app-ads per day by the summer of 2010.  Even if we cut that number in half and apply a modest $10/CPM ad rate – that represents daily gross appvertainment revenue of  $5M.  Apple’s vig on the ad revenue is 40%.  This is easily approaching a $1B+ annual revenue opportunity for Apple.

Click for full commercial

Another interesting aspect of this strategy is that Apple is clearly focusing on large brands and advertising agencies – in other words, the folks with the largest budgets.   This clearly makes sense.  The cost of an appvertainment production can easily be in excess of $250K+.  The inclusion of integrated and compelling video with engaging interactivity is not the domain of amateurs, but rather professional digital agencies.  The examples that Jobs demonstrated during his presentation (Nike, Disney and Target) are all major national brands with large budgets and big Madison Avenue agencies.

As I watched the presentation another thought came to mind –  “Is this legal?”  What would happen if Microsoft integrated a proprietary ad serving system in their OS and demanded 40% of the revenue of every ad served on a Windows machine?  This topic will clearly be discussed in the blogosphere and perhaps courtrooms in the future.

Did anyone hear a mention of sharing ad revenue with Mobile Carriers?

Another  “pole” of significance is the enhanced suite of enterprise features. Corporate CIOs have had a set of killer issues that prohibited the iPhone from significant corporate sanctioned and supported utilization.  Apple is trying to remove these roadblocks with OS4.  In addition to the enhanced  security and email capabilities is device management.  Device management includes the feature of permitting corporations to load their own private apps on the iPhone.    The execs at RIM should be concerned about their Blackberry franchise.

Apple would not be investing in enterprise features while maintaining an exclusive relationship with AT&T.  OS4 changes Apple from the Trojan Horse of a sexy consumer device on AT&T to a machine poised for world domination.

The competition between Google and their Android platform and Apple will only get fiercer.  Nokia is the only other global player who can play at this level.   Palm, RIM and even Microsoft will fight for the leftover niches.  It is a battle of the controlled and planed eco-system of Apple vs. the Open-Source world of Android.

The Apple tent has room for enterprise applications, has a new revenue source for app developers, and embraces big brands, ad agencies and publishers.  Adobe (no Flash support) and Google are outside the tent of OS4.  Microsoft got the biggest slight in this announcement as their mobile efforts were ignored as though not relevant.  And what about the mobile carriers?  Do they exist in the Apple world? Continue reading

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iWant my iPad – iJust don’t know why?

With the much anticipated launch of the iPad, I stepped back from the hype and techno glitz to ask the question,”Is Apple making the same mistakes of 25 years ago?”

The macro headline for Apple of that time would be “Great Product, lack of licensing and eco-system cedes market to Microsoft” So what’s different this time and what is the same?

The differences are that Apple, under Jobs is an innovation engine that is inventing new product classes – iPod, iTouch,  iPhone, iPad, etc.  The new products are launched and live in a ecosystem  under a benevolent dictatorship (or is it?).  One architecture, One way of getting apps, ads or “tunes” through their closed garden eco-system.  Everyone pays a tax to Apple to play.  This works as long as there are not viable alternatives to the Apple product.

In the case of the iPod, Apple’s eco-system became so powerful that it all but squeezed out all comers. Does anyone own a Zune?  The iPhone, however,  will likely be a different story.

The iPhone was the techno-product equivalent of a genetic mutation, the first of a new species.  It leveraged the eco-system of the IPod , then enhanced it with a vibrant app store.  So what’s the problem?   Apple’s problem is that Google is not the Microsoft.

The Android Platform will mutate and evolve dozens of times a year.  The Apple Iphone is on pace for one major release a year.   Add to this mix Nokia’s Symbian platform, Palm, Blackberry , and yes even Microsoft – and the challenge to Apple’s smartphone bonanza is formidable.   The challengers permit innovation from many hardware vendors  ( HTC, Samsung, Motorola and LG  to just name a few).  The innovation of smartphone products with a common eco-system(s) (Android, Symbian, Nokia, etc) will be more than Apple can bare.  Their share will become a significant but much smaller niche.  This will happen unless the iPhone OS is permitted to evolve outside of Apple.  Since the history of Apple is to control their value chain, this is not likely.

But have no fear you Apple devotees.  Apple’s respond is to morph new species, not new versions of an old one.

Thus enter the iPad – Not a netbook, not a laptop, not an iTouch….  It’s something new- and yes it leverages the vibrant iPhone eco-system,  Another key aspect of the iPad strategy is cloud computing.  The more your “stuff” is stored online , the less you need mass local storage.  Ironically a leader in this space is Google with their Google docs.   I recently purchased a Netbook for around $250.  Rather than double that investment with a version of Microsoft Office, I use Google Docs.  For most use cases it works great and all the docs are backed up – check that – live on the net.  If the iPad is going to squeeze in between netbooks and laptops, it has to have cloud computing for email storage, simple “office-like” apps and document storage.

Is there room in this Darwinian e-volution tree for this hybrid being?  Apple is betting yes – and if successful it will provide them another 5 year run before competitors really catch up.  In the mean time, they invent a new product category, while the previous product hits start to get caught and even surpassed from a market share and innovation standpoint.   Apple cannot afford to compete in every e-category of consumer products with 100% of the innovation – no company can compete with the entire industry.

The secret to this strategy is not to suffer from innovators dilemma.  Apple seems very content to re-invent products categories, even if they diminish the position they have in a previous market.  It is hard to come up with many examples that rival such a strategic culture.   Rather than invest in two more iPhone iterations or faster innovation on an Ipod – they re-invent them all.  This is the truly amazing aspect of Apple and can only come directly from Steve Jobs.  They bet the company on continued hit products.  The strategy works as long as the hits keep coming and Jobs remains at the helm.  Apple would not have been able to sustain a “Vista-like” disaster and have a flagship product be a complete bomb for years.

So – now its off the Apple store to buy my iPad.  Why?  I don’t know – but I’m sure I’ll like it when I figure it out.

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Filed under advertising, android, Apple, cloud computing, iPad, iphone, Ipod, iTunes, mobile

The iPad– “Thou shall have apps…

The much heralded announcement of the iPad brings with it profits (or prophets?) as well as naysayers.  Perhaps Steve Jobs should have dressed in long ropes, grew a long white beard and walked down to the stage with a view of the mountains in the background?  The scene might be further played out with the masses dancing around and worshipping the netbook, the new deity of computing.

Steve Jobs raises his two iPads and declares that he has heard the word of the almighty and has declared that these tablets are the new iReligion.  Then he declares that he alone will now lead them from their transgressions to the land of endless apps.

(Note to Mr. Jobs:  If I recall my bible studies it took Moses another 40 years to find the Promised Land)

The announcement of the iPad will cause debates, forecasts, and predictions of successes and/or doom.  One thing is clear; the iPad is Apple’s near-term answer to the netbook phenomenon .  According to eWeek, netbook sales topped 33M in 2009 and Acer predicts sales in excess of 50M in 2010.   Apple sells about 3M Macs a quarter.

The sub $300 price point of the netbook did create a new category of device.  A device that is intimately linked to the trend of cloud computing.  Netbooks are good at email and web browsing.  They are not great entertainment devices.

The iPad promises to be as good as netbooks in what they do well – email and browsing – and also be a fun personal entertainment device.  The iPad wisely brings along over 100K apps at launch from the iPhone/iTouch world.

The question that the iPad raises for me is – how many personal connected devices can one person have?

The emergence of the smart phone category (iPhone, Android, Symbian, Blackberry, Palm, Windows Mobile) has created the instant connectivity to email, web and apps.  These devices fit in your pocket , are reasonably robust, and cheap to buy.

The laptop category, as Steve Jobs pointed out in his keynote, is another version of mobile computing.  With the weight of laptops hitting 5lbs and below, and with desktop computing capability, they have become the standard for students and professionals

Netbooks have created a bridge between the two major device areas as a lightweight computing device.  Now, enter the iPad at a $499 pricepoint.  Will the iPad grow the mobile Internet market or cannibalize other sales?

My prediction is market cannibalization.

The smart phone market is secure and growing.  The basic functions of instant and multimodal communications are clear and a continued focal point of human need.

The laptop and netbook markets are likely to be the feeding ground of iPad sales.

But how and why?

The answer is personal cloud computing.  The more the consumer environment transforms from local storage and processing to cloud storage/computing with local display and data entry – the better the market environment will be for the iPad.   The Apple entry into personal cloud computing – MobileMe – has been less than compelling.  This is especially true as Google, and others,  offer many of the same capabilities for free.

The iPad equation still requires one more piece of the puzzle to reach the Promised Land.  Steve Jobs will have to climb the mountain again and come back with another divine revelation.

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Filed under android, Apple, cloud computing, Content, holy grail, iPad, Isarel, microsoft, mobile, Moses, netbooks, smart phone, Smartphone, Steve Jobs, wireless

Google clicks in for Mobile

googleDuring the past week Google made two significant splashes in the mobile arena. Their much heralded, bombing of middle America with Stealth fighters announced the landing of the “Droid” mobile device. Secondly, their acquisition of the leading U.S. mobile advertising company, Admob for $750M announced the full legitimacy of mobile advertising. When Google speadmobaks, the rest of the industry should listen.

There was a time, not too long ago, when an entire industry seemed to get a simultaneous epiphany – that the Internet had created a legitimate “second” screen to television.  When this became “conventional wisdom”, the advertising Dollars, Euros and Yen started to shift from the “spray and pray” methods of television to the increasingly targeted methodologies of the web.

The same thought process can now be safely referred to as “conventional wisdom” for mobile.  The consumer is spending more time starring at their mobile screen, and less and less at their Web browsers, and even far less in front of the television.  With this reality, the web advertising giant is shifting more investment to the third screen  – which we should refer to as the consumers prime screen, the mobile screen.

We have transitioned from TV ad blindness (really a Pavlovian queue to go to the frig or bathroom), to web banner blindness.  We now, however, have the personal medium of the smartphone to reach consumers.

We have moved from the communal family device, the television, to a shared, yet personal device, the PC to the personal and un-shared device, the smartphone.

There will be some winners and losers in this new reality.  The winners will be companies that have invested ahead of the curve and have developed mobile and true multimodal next gen advertising vehicles.   Advertising and promotional technologies and processes that have broken with the “spray and pray” techniques of the past and capitalize on the true personal 1-1 advertising techniques, providing consumers ads that they want to view, will be the market winners.

The Android has positioned Google to be in your pocket, not figuratively, but literally.  The combined promotion with VZW and Moto, with stealth bombers creating a thinly veiled a sense of “Shock and Awe”, is a loud statement.

(Note to the Droid ad agency – Stealth bombers do not fly during the day, hence the word “stealth”)

See my other comments on the ad campaign at the end of this blog article.

VZW is a company with a great network and a lagging device lineup. Moto has raw engineering and production talent for mobile devices and has largely fallen off the radar screen in recent years.  Google, the dominant player in the present  generation of Internet advertising, is seeking to maintain and grow that position in the next generation.

So, Google is playing a pre-emptive attack strategy in mobile. VZW is playing catch-up to the iPhone.  Moto is, perhaps, playing their last “bet the company” card on Android technology.  Offense, defense and survival makes for three very motivated partners.

With the expected proliferation of Droids and other smartphones, Google’s purchase of ADMob is both stunning and obvious.   Another winner in this market shift will be, as I have written about in the past, the major social networks.

So who are the losers this past week?

On the Wireless Carrier side of the equation, Sprint and T-Mobile have to be concerned.  The gap between them and the leaders  (AT&T and VZW) is widening.   I  expect one less mobile service company in the U.S. in the next 12 months.

The emergence of Android platforms is likely the end of Palm as a mobile platform.  The Palm Pre never got the consumers attention and thus critical market share.

Too little, too late.

Palm will not be able to compete with Google and Apple in this round.  Their demise is written on the wall (in Graffiti).

500x_smartphonemarkshareRIM also has to be very concerned.  The launch of their touch screen device, the Storm was, well, stormy.   Blackberry has a strong market position and is well entrenched.  It has made significant growth in the consumer segment in recent years.  Will that growth reverse with maturing Android devices?  While Blackberry is in a much stronger position than Palm, the combined investment potential and application resources of Apple and Google will be a major challenge to RIM’s Blackberry.

All that said, RIM still commands over 20% global share in smartphones

Application developers will have to start to prioritize their porting and promotion of new applications between four major global platforms – Symbian,  Blackberry, Apple and Android.

It will be interesting to watch the global leader in the smartphone category – Nokia and their Symbian Operating System.  This platform is relatively unknown in the U.S. market, but is dominate in the rest of the world.

The next obvious question is how do these moves motivate other players in the industry to react?  Microsoft is desperately playing catch-up to Google in present generation search engines and advertising.  Their own version of a mobile operating system has made, at best, niche inroads.  Microsoft has suffered from execution issues and seems to be the biggest example of true  “innovators dilemma” in the last 20 years.

Yahoo has some mobile applications but seems to be a company unable to focus the attention necessary on any one initiative.  Perhaps some Corporate Ritalin is in order?

My conclusion is that both Microsoft and Yahoo will likely go shopping for a focused next gen advertising company.

Ad Agencies that have largely focused on managing creative production and bulk television ad buying are increasingly on the wrong side of the technology curve.  They are, however, in a good position with the depth of their industry relationships, to be a major force in the next wave of Internet/Mobile advertising,. The question is are they willing to move from their existing business models and develop the expertise in the methodologies, either in-house or through acquisition that can maintain their market positions in the value chain for the next generation.

The technology of smartphones, advertising and applications has now combined to make the next generation of consumer services and commerce a break from the past.  At least that’s what I hear from all of the “Conventional Wisdom”.

Notes on Droid Ad Campaign:

The more I thought about the Android “Stealth Fighter” ads the more I realized that that imagery was quite familiar.  I have added four additional videos for your viewing.  Theses video are the trailers for the 1953 and 2005 versions of “War of the Worlds” , the trailer for Armageddon and CNN footage of the bombing of Baghdad.

With these videos you can draw your own conclusions.  Please let me know what you think.

In my opinion, these images all have some resemblance to the Droid commercial.  In each of these cases the situation did not end well for the “entrenched” establishment.  Mass destruction was the result.  In one case a virus saved mankind.  This is hardly the message that a smartphone operating system might want to promote.    The droid-like figures eventually emerge to destroy everything in sight –they really do – you can Google it.  In the CNN footage a nation watched mesmerized by the imagery, only to learn that perhaps the wrong war was fought.

All interesting imagery for the first shot in a new generation of smartphones.

Subtle – this is not.

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Mobile Application Stores Change the Game

For years the availability of applications on mobile devices was determined by a handful of executives at wireless companies. They choose what apps got the penthouse placement of being placed on the carriers’ mobile web portal. Placement on the “home-deck” was the Holy Grail for every business development executive.

In recent years, off-deck players have made significant in roads, especially in the ring tone market. The explosion of premium and non-premium SMS services has done much to level the playing field. Marketers such as Dada, Thumbplay and Jamster spend millions promoting their mobile services on the Web, Television and Print media. They acquire customers by having them enter a 5 or 6 digit SMS address on their phones.

This industry model has been busted thanks to the Apple App store, with an earlier assist by Qualcomm.

images-1Qualcomm had the first app store in the U.S. with its BREW (Binary Run-time Environment for Wireless). Qualcomm aggregated applications with their partners (Verizon and Alltel), certified their quality and populated the handset downloadable application environments. Issues in their initial attempt at an app store were: discoverability of applications (Search), placement on handsets that were not optimized for high-end applications, and most importantly a lack of compelling applications. The on-boarding process of developing an application for their platform, having it approved by Qualcomm, then having it approved by the wireless carrier for actual placement was a slow and cumbersome process. In short, it was a telecom-oriented process, not a rapid Internet style process. It was a good start.

Apple took off where Qualcomm fell off,

The iPhone device is capable of sophisticated, compelling and very cool applications. There are thousand’s of applications. They range from business, to gaming, to social networking and to the regrettably ever-popular iPhone fart app.

The application availability and media utility of the iPhone is more than compensating for the shortcomings of the actual phone.

Apple does not select applications. They let the market choose. Their strategy is to allow a thousands of applications to be deployed knowing you may have a handful of winners.

This strategy is very similar to the path taken by Facebook. There are now several college courses that require the creation of a working Facebook application as a class assignment. Wow! That’s the definition of mainstream.

android_logo_t-mobileThe iPhone app store model is being copied by T-mobile and their Android(Google Phone) product. Last week Blackberry announced that they are following suit with a similar app store. Application stores are also available for the Palm,and the Symbian platforms. Not to be out done, Samsung , Windows mobile and Nokia have plans for their own applications stores. How soon will it be before consumers refuse to have a device that is not connected to a rich app store?

1812250This is another catalyst for the perfect storm of device and applications that I wrote about last year. The combination of the large screen devices, with powerful processing capabilities, on wireless networks with high data services, coupled with open 3rd party accessible application stores and developers that really understand the consumer experience, defines the new value chain for mobile applications.

 

These factors, coupled with a growing awareness and expertise with social marketing, will make the next generation of mobile services a quantum leap over what we have seen to date.

This is really going to be amazing!

Markets are great at creative destruction of the old. The players in the previous market model with either adapt and become major or app store players, or die.

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Filed under android, Apple, blackberry, facebook, Google, iphone, mobile, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, social networking, wireless