Tag Archives: AT&T

Appvertainment from Jobs-Apple and the iAd

The announcement of iPhone OS4 changes the Smartphone  world – yet again.  As Steve Jobs described the 7 tent poles of the new iPhone/iTouch/Ipad OS, it was clear that the tent was not quite large enough for everyone. The center pole of this tent is clearly– iAds.

The raison-d’etre  for the much heralded multi-tasking feature is Appvertainment.  (e.g. iAds).    Do not be distracted by the fact that he introduced multi-tasking first and iAds last.  They are intimately linked.

Apple is pursuing their app centric  vs. search (Apple vs. Google) strategy for smartphones  through the introduction of their own OS integrated  ad serving technology.  Multi-tasking is the key component in this ad strategy to permit a user to return to an app after an ADHD moment is fulfilled by playing with a cool appvertainment.  Without multitasking you lose your application state/status and have to start over again.  Jobs is trying to change user behavior and reward users for clicking on an ad with an engaging experience, instead of punishing them by having them have to re-start their app.

Appvertainment targeting was not discussed. The social  and geolocation information that the host apps maintain on users will most likely be used for targeting purposes.  The Apple social game network API will no doubt  be used for providing this targeting information for game hosted appvertainments .    Apple is betting that App hosted ads will be valuable than Internet style search ads.

Jobs boosted that the Apple platforms would be capable of serving 1 billion app-ads per day by the summer of 2010.  Even if we cut that number in half and apply a modest $10/CPM ad rate – that represents daily gross appvertainment revenue of  $5M.  Apple’s vig on the ad revenue is 40%.  This is easily approaching a $1B+ annual revenue opportunity for Apple.

Click for full commercial

Another interesting aspect of this strategy is that Apple is clearly focusing on large brands and advertising agencies – in other words, the folks with the largest budgets.   This clearly makes sense.  The cost of an appvertainment production can easily be in excess of $250K+.  The inclusion of integrated and compelling video with engaging interactivity is not the domain of amateurs, but rather professional digital agencies.  The examples that Jobs demonstrated during his presentation (Nike, Disney and Target) are all major national brands with large budgets and big Madison Avenue agencies.

As I watched the presentation another thought came to mind –  “Is this legal?”  What would happen if Microsoft integrated a proprietary ad serving system in their OS and demanded 40% of the revenue of every ad served on a Windows machine?  This topic will clearly be discussed in the blogosphere and perhaps courtrooms in the future.

Did anyone hear a mention of sharing ad revenue with Mobile Carriers?

Another  “pole” of significance is the enhanced suite of enterprise features. Corporate CIOs have had a set of killer issues that prohibited the iPhone from significant corporate sanctioned and supported utilization.  Apple is trying to remove these roadblocks with OS4.  In addition to the enhanced  security and email capabilities is device management.  Device management includes the feature of permitting corporations to load their own private apps on the iPhone.    The execs at RIM should be concerned about their Blackberry franchise.

Apple would not be investing in enterprise features while maintaining an exclusive relationship with AT&T.  OS4 changes Apple from the Trojan Horse of a sexy consumer device on AT&T to a machine poised for world domination.

The competition between Google and their Android platform and Apple will only get fiercer.  Nokia is the only other global player who can play at this level.   Palm, RIM and even Microsoft will fight for the leftover niches.  It is a battle of the controlled and planed eco-system of Apple vs. the Open-Source world of Android.

The Apple tent has room for enterprise applications, has a new revenue source for app developers, and embraces big brands, ad agencies and publishers.  Adobe (no Flash support) and Google are outside the tent of OS4.  Microsoft got the biggest slight in this announcement as their mobile efforts were ignored as though not relevant.  And what about the mobile carriers?  Do they exist in the Apple world? Continue reading

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Filed under advertising, android, Apple, AT&T, Beezag, blackberry, facebook, Google, iPad, iphone, Ipod, iTunes, location based services, management, microsoft, mobile, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, mobile games, netbooks, new media, Newspapers, Open Network, opensource, pirates, smart phone, Smartphone, Social Media, social networking, Steve Jobs, Twitter, Web2.0, widgets, wireless

Kudos to Verizon for taking on Leadership – Mobile without Phone Numbers

Approximately one year ago I wrote an article entitled “The Future of Mobile – without phone numbers.” In my discussion I put forth the proposition that social networks would take over the fundamental connectivity for individuals and that phone numbers would be a network “IP address”.   This article generated 100’s of emails and questions, some supportive, some not, but all thought provoking. It was clear that I had hit a nerve.

A major step towards my view of the future of mobile communications was taken by Verizon in the last week.  Verizon Announced at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, and later confirmed and launched at CTIA 2010, an integrated Skype calling service.  This service enables users to click any Skype username, make a call, and not be charged for mobile minutes.  This service even uses the mobile voice connectivity of Verizon for the wireless network of the call.

This is a major watershed event for the industry.  A major carrier embracing voice as a data service, with calls completed outside of the carrier’s equivalent phone number – DNS.

In fact, this capability had been  available by such applications as ISkoot.  What is big news is that Verizon is openly promoting this service and not charging for mobile minutes.   Another advantage of the Verizon version is that it is “always-on”.  I received my first Skype call on my mobile yesterday.  It just happened like any other mobile call.  It was an important business call and all I could think about at the conclusion was – that was cool.

The use of social networks and non-phone number connection services implies that that contact DNS aggregation services will become even more important.  My network contact list will be an amalgamation of my Facebook, Linkedin, Skype, Twitter,  existing phone books, AOL IM list and likely several others.  Aggregating my contact lists, storing them in the network cloud and presenting them to me on demand in a usable form is essential.

While at CTIA I was on a panel discussion with   Mike Mulica, CEO of FusionOne.  FusionOne is a leading example of such a network based contact/address book that spans social networks.  They are certainly a company worth watching in the future, as they appear to be “on the right side of the technology curve”.

A question that remains is how does Verizon generate revenue by connecting calls for free?  Simple answers include increased data subscriptions and greater subscriber growth via churn from other carriers.    In the U.S. market, with mobile penetration approaching 90%, carriers can only increase subscribers by churning their competitor’s customers.   Since the Skype app on iPhone is not as full featured and cannot be “always-on”, VZW has given leading edge users a reason to switch NOW.

In the future I would expect connections between Skype calling capability and other applications on Verizon, especially those provided through the Verizon’s own app store.  I also expect that full mobile video calling and even video conferencing via Skype is no doubt on the roadmap.

This feature is only available to VZW smartphone subscribers , and that means a $29.99/mo data charge.

Regardless of the long term revenue sources, VZW has taken a clear leadership position in its market and now has the their competitors determining a catch-up strategy.  Kudos to Verizon on this move.

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Filed under Acquisitions, advertising, android, Apple, AT&T, cloud computing, CTIA, facebook, FusionOne, iphone, location based services, MAc, mobile, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, portal, skype, smart phone, Smartphone, Twitter, Verizon, Web2.0, widgets, wireless

Marketing is about choices – or is it? You decide

Marketing is about choices – or is it?

I recently went through a mental exercise of trying to determine what makes great marketing companies…. well…. great.   There are the obvious, and historic , iconic brands of the last 100 years – Coke,  Ford, AT&T,  McDonalds, Bud,  Chevy.  These brands have become part of the American DNA.  They will not necessarily be the great marketing giants of the next 20 years, but like that old pair of jeans, somewhat comfortable,  but  not what you will brag to your friends about.


None of these companies excelled at consumer choice.  Coke gives you with/without caffeine and  with/without sugar .  Ford and Chevy have nearly gone out of business by trying to offer too many choices, or more correctly, dictating what the consumer should choose.  Bud gives you regular or lite.  McDonalds is about the burger.  These companies have used massive advertising to direct the consumer choice to their pre-determined, limited set of options.


The companies that are dominating consumer choices now are Google, Apple, Facebook, Your Cable/Internet Providers, and Amazon.com.   They all seemingly put choice back in the hands of the consumer.  Google presents you with literally whatever you want.   Apple provides endless apps on the first really open smartphone.  Facebook opens a world of new and past friends and lets you choose who you want to be friends with, or not.   Cable television began to break up the monopoly of the networks by providing consumers 100’s (and now 1000’s) of channels of choice, coupled with video on demand.   In this era of consumer empowerment, does brand matter?


The conclusion I came to is yes , and now more than ever.  Fundamentally, marketing is about directing a consumers choice to a specific product or service.  Google only makes money when you choose to click on a product search that was highlighted via advertising.  Apple needs you to choose their marketplace for apps.  With thousands upon thousands of apps, what will be the mechanism for consumer adoption?  The featured list of apps on the iphone is really what? It is a mechanism to show you that you have unlimited choice , but then direct your choice in a specific manner.     Facebook is a huge social marketing machine that tries to influence your choices by having your friends influence you.  Influence the Influencers, and you direct choices.

Your Cable providers can offer you 100’s of channels, and as has been seen in recent days, can take those channels away.  They do however; seem to come the closest to providing relatively influence free choices. (Their advertising for paid VOD movies aside).


Amazon provides a brilliant mix of peer reviews and product recommendations.  They are really the more direct version of Google.  Search on what you want to buy, get a couple of choices.  If you don’t like what you see, they suggest close alternatives. While their marketing value proposition is about unlimited choice, their technology is all about limiting your choice, so that you will make a choice.


So, the older model had a marketing organization pre-determining a consumer’s choice through some form of market research and then marketing the heck out of those choices.  Now, companies give the illusion of unlimited choices, monitor and track the actual choices that are made and then capitalize on those choices and utilize more subtle earns to influence those choices.


Marketing is marketing.  The techniques evolve, but the goals remain the same.  Buy my product or service and not the other guys.

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Filed under advertising, Apple, E-Commerce, economy, facebook, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, smart phone, Smartphone, Social Media, social networking

Google clicks in for Mobile

googleDuring the past week Google made two significant splashes in the mobile arena. Their much heralded, bombing of middle America with Stealth fighters announced the landing of the “Droid” mobile device. Secondly, their acquisition of the leading U.S. mobile advertising company, Admob for $750M announced the full legitimacy of mobile advertising. When Google speadmobaks, the rest of the industry should listen.

There was a time, not too long ago, when an entire industry seemed to get a simultaneous epiphany – that the Internet had created a legitimate “second” screen to television.  When this became “conventional wisdom”, the advertising Dollars, Euros and Yen started to shift from the “spray and pray” methods of television to the increasingly targeted methodologies of the web.

The same thought process can now be safely referred to as “conventional wisdom” for mobile.  The consumer is spending more time starring at their mobile screen, and less and less at their Web browsers, and even far less in front of the television.  With this reality, the web advertising giant is shifting more investment to the third screen  – which we should refer to as the consumers prime screen, the mobile screen.

We have transitioned from TV ad blindness (really a Pavlovian queue to go to the frig or bathroom), to web banner blindness.  We now, however, have the personal medium of the smartphone to reach consumers.

We have moved from the communal family device, the television, to a shared, yet personal device, the PC to the personal and un-shared device, the smartphone.

There will be some winners and losers in this new reality.  The winners will be companies that have invested ahead of the curve and have developed mobile and true multimodal next gen advertising vehicles.   Advertising and promotional technologies and processes that have broken with the “spray and pray” techniques of the past and capitalize on the true personal 1-1 advertising techniques, providing consumers ads that they want to view, will be the market winners.

The Android has positioned Google to be in your pocket, not figuratively, but literally.  The combined promotion with VZW and Moto, with stealth bombers creating a thinly veiled a sense of “Shock and Awe”, is a loud statement.

(Note to the Droid ad agency – Stealth bombers do not fly during the day, hence the word “stealth”)

See my other comments on the ad campaign at the end of this blog article.

VZW is a company with a great network and a lagging device lineup. Moto has raw engineering and production talent for mobile devices and has largely fallen off the radar screen in recent years.  Google, the dominant player in the present  generation of Internet advertising, is seeking to maintain and grow that position in the next generation.

So, Google is playing a pre-emptive attack strategy in mobile. VZW is playing catch-up to the iPhone.  Moto is, perhaps, playing their last “bet the company” card on Android technology.  Offense, defense and survival makes for three very motivated partners.

With the expected proliferation of Droids and other smartphones, Google’s purchase of ADMob is both stunning and obvious.   Another winner in this market shift will be, as I have written about in the past, the major social networks.

So who are the losers this past week?

On the Wireless Carrier side of the equation, Sprint and T-Mobile have to be concerned.  The gap between them and the leaders  (AT&T and VZW) is widening.   I  expect one less mobile service company in the U.S. in the next 12 months.

The emergence of Android platforms is likely the end of Palm as a mobile platform.  The Palm Pre never got the consumers attention and thus critical market share.

Too little, too late.

Palm will not be able to compete with Google and Apple in this round.  Their demise is written on the wall (in Graffiti).

500x_smartphonemarkshareRIM also has to be very concerned.  The launch of their touch screen device, the Storm was, well, stormy.   Blackberry has a strong market position and is well entrenched.  It has made significant growth in the consumer segment in recent years.  Will that growth reverse with maturing Android devices?  While Blackberry is in a much stronger position than Palm, the combined investment potential and application resources of Apple and Google will be a major challenge to RIM’s Blackberry.

All that said, RIM still commands over 20% global share in smartphones

Application developers will have to start to prioritize their porting and promotion of new applications between four major global platforms – Symbian,  Blackberry, Apple and Android.

It will be interesting to watch the global leader in the smartphone category – Nokia and their Symbian Operating System.  This platform is relatively unknown in the U.S. market, but is dominate in the rest of the world.

The next obvious question is how do these moves motivate other players in the industry to react?  Microsoft is desperately playing catch-up to Google in present generation search engines and advertising.  Their own version of a mobile operating system has made, at best, niche inroads.  Microsoft has suffered from execution issues and seems to be the biggest example of true  “innovators dilemma” in the last 20 years.

Yahoo has some mobile applications but seems to be a company unable to focus the attention necessary on any one initiative.  Perhaps some Corporate Ritalin is in order?

My conclusion is that both Microsoft and Yahoo will likely go shopping for a focused next gen advertising company.

Ad Agencies that have largely focused on managing creative production and bulk television ad buying are increasingly on the wrong side of the technology curve.  They are, however, in a good position with the depth of their industry relationships, to be a major force in the next wave of Internet/Mobile advertising,. The question is are they willing to move from their existing business models and develop the expertise in the methodologies, either in-house or through acquisition that can maintain their market positions in the value chain for the next generation.

The technology of smartphones, advertising and applications has now combined to make the next generation of consumer services and commerce a break from the past.  At least that’s what I hear from all of the “Conventional Wisdom”.

Notes on Droid Ad Campaign:

The more I thought about the Android “Stealth Fighter” ads the more I realized that that imagery was quite familiar.  I have added four additional videos for your viewing.  Theses video are the trailers for the 1953 and 2005 versions of “War of the Worlds” , the trailer for Armageddon and CNN footage of the bombing of Baghdad.

With these videos you can draw your own conclusions.  Please let me know what you think.

In my opinion, these images all have some resemblance to the Droid commercial.  In each of these cases the situation did not end well for the “entrenched” establishment.  Mass destruction was the result.  In one case a virus saved mankind.  This is hardly the message that a smartphone operating system might want to promote.    The droid-like figures eventually emerge to destroy everything in sight –they really do – you can Google it.  In the CNN footage a nation watched mesmerized by the imagery, only to learn that perhaps the wrong war was fought.

All interesting imagery for the first shot in a new generation of smartphones.

Subtle – this is not.

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Filed under Acquisitions, advertising, android, Apple, facebook, Google, mobile, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, smart phone, Smartphone, Social Media, Twitter, Web2.0, wireless, You Tube

Verizon FIOS Execs – Please Read – It’s Not Me, It’s You

vonage-logoToday I made the jump, the leap, to Fios. For the record my previous home technology stack had been Vonage for voice, Comcast for Internet and TV. I have had VZW for mobile since the days they actually called it a “car phone”.

Since I was working from home today, I was able to observe the FIOS tech as he went about his business in my house. He arrived promptly at 9:00 and greeted me like the chef at a Japanese steaks house. “Okay, Mr. Spencer, you have one Triple-Play, three sets, two with, one without, HBO , Internet and Phone….correct?” Should I have ordered the soup also?

He told me that installation is an 8 hour job and that he would be in and out all day. No Problem. I went about my business, we went about is.

After a couple of hours I took a break from my work to see how Verizon guy was doing. He was busy6-18-08-fios_installerattaching the “ONU” (Optical Networking Unit) to the side of my house. I found it interesting since during my early days at Bell Labs, in the 1980s, my department had worked on the Darwinian ancestors of the ONU. Back then the evolutionary process was first called FTTC (Fiber to the Curb), the unfortunate acronym -Far Access Remote Terminal, and lastly FTTH, Fiber to the Home. These were all technologies that were decades ahead of their time.

verizonfiosbackupHe then proceeded to install a battery backup for the phone service in my basement. The phones I use are all cordless and my family has 5 mobile phones. The battery back will not help my cordless phones and a blackout should not impact my mobile phones. This is a pure expense for legal air cover should the power go out and -GFB- I need to call 911. For such an advanced service, very backward thinking in 2009.

After buzzing out the phones, the Internet came up quickly and then the last pulling and tugging of cable to get the television service going. All went smoothly to that point. Just like the commercials, he sat me down and demonstrated my remote (without a cable guy glaring in from the window). Total effort was the advertised 8 hours.

As soon as he left and we started to use the service, the quirks emerged.

Firstly the Verizon set up disk only works on a Windows machine. I had to morph my Mac with a VM to fire up Vista. The setup program executed, updated and churned for 45 minutes. The only think useful that happened, through all the screens, T&C’s and other useless info, was that I got a Verizon email. One that I will never use.

I then tried to register at Verizon.Net. I tried several times and continually got a message that said “We cannot register you now”. This seemed strange. Then it hit me. Verizon has nothing that supports Mac, even Safari browser. So, I switched to Firefox and the registration worked perfectly.

Next task was to set up my personal and work email using the outgoing email server at Verizon. I prefer to use my ISPs outgoing service so that my free personal email with my own domain does not have ads on the bottom.

Everything seemed to work with just one small problem. The test emails that I sent to myself never arrived? I connected to the Verizon server just fine. The email was accepted by the server and then got lost.

This could not be a Verizon issue. After all, when I leave my house I have that nerdy guy with glasses and 300 of his friendssplash_verizon_crowdfollow me around to make sure my service is ok. Having served Verizon as a vendor for most of my career I appreciate that they take 99.999% reliability seriously.

I checked and double checked all the passwords, permissions etc. I stopped and thought about this and then I remembered another strange occurrence about 4 months ago.

I had just started a new job and was configuring my corporate email account on Google. Like most people (I assume), after you set up an email account you send yourself some test emails to make sure it works. I had the same problem with Google. I struggled with that one for a couple of hours. Next, I checked some bulletin boards and found out that Google mail was in the middle of a significant outage! Three hours later, without touching anything, my service was up and working.

I wondered. Could I be that unlucky? Could Verizon be having an email problem the exact moment I tried to use my new Verizon service? I checked the Verizon user self-help bulletin boards and…..Bingo!….. Verizon was experienceing hour plus delays in email delivery due to server outages.

I put email aside and next tried to tackle voicemail. There was nowhere on a Verizon support site or any piece of paper or booklet that I got from Verizon that instructed me on what to do to set up voicemail. I know that Verizon has some portal somewhere to listen to voicemails online and send yourself alerts, but they certainly like to keep it a secret.

Since I’m not exactly new to the telephony world, I just dialed my own number and walked through the VM set-up. But, I still wanted to find this portal. I figured it was accessible through Verizon.com – a logical guess. I had previously registered on Verizon.net and thought that user name and password would allow me into Verizon.Com. no such luck. I tried to register at verizon.com (with a non-Apple browser, of course!) and still no luck.

Now its time to call Verizon. I have to say one of the reasons I left Comcast was because their customer service was , well, sucky. Verizon, with my nerd friend and his army of techs clearly have their act together, right? Wrong….

I called customer support, waited 10 minutes with really bad music, and spoke to a lovely lady with a heavy Indian accent. I explained that I was trying to find the Verizon voice mail online portal. I am not sure exactly which word she did not understand, but I guess it was everything after the word “Verizon”. I gave here my address and phone number twice and she said, “Oh my, you have fiber optic voice service!” Bursting with geek pride I said, “Yes I do!”. I figured I must now be in line for some very special VIP treatment.

Her next words were, “I can’t help you , I will transfer you to Fios” , The line went silent and then I was put on hold with music for another 10 minutes. At this point another guy answered the phone, asked me for all the same information and gave me the same line – “I can’t help you, I will transfer you” click, ring, music, another 10 minutes.

The third person I spoke to understood what I was looking to achieve. He also told me that he could not help me but said the “e-desk” is the place for “you”. Frustrated and wanting to have a little fun; when he asked me if there was anything else he could help me with , I said yes. “The Verizon email? Does it always take an hour to deliver an email? Is that standard?” He launched into the tech support speech that I call “you are a dumb person with technology and let me tell you why….” He went on about how Verizon can’t be held responsible for the whole Internet and that was obviously the problem. After he finished reading from the prepared speech on his PC (obviously not a Mac) . I asked him , “If that’s the case, why did my email stall in a Verizon server for 67 minutes?” I gave him the server name and the IP address. I am not sure what I gained by that, so to that Verizon CS guy…..sorry.

He then connected me the e-desk. Finally some satisfaction? I got a recording that the e-desk ‘s hours of service had ended two hours ago. Click, disconnect. Oy.

Hey Verizon, I could have gotten this treatment from Comcast!

Epilogue:
In this change over of home technologies I had to cancel Vonage and Comcast. This is almost as frustrating as my Verizon help desk run around.

First Comcast:

comcast21After working my way through the automated phone system I finally got to they “cancel service” option. I nice upbeat guy answered and I told him I was cancelling my TV and Internet Service. He told me he was “Shocked” to hear that. That I was such a good customer. (paid my bills?). Then he starts to launch into the “Save this customer “script. These scripts can last 15 minutes. Once he launched into all of the new special offers and services that Comcast could bring me, I asked him to stop, jump to the last page of the script where you give me my cancellation confirmation number. He was “deeply saddened”, and asked Why would I leave?
I told him “Its not you, It’s me” and I promised to still be friends.

Next breakup call was Vonage. The guy on Vonage was “amazed” that I was a Vonage user for 5 years. I was one their longest tenured customers, practically a celebrity. I also asked him to skip the next 10 pages of script and just give me my cancellation confirmation number. He decided to read the next 10 pages anyway.

I also told Vonage , “Its not you, it’s me”, and my new BFFL Verizon. He could not believe I would leave Vonage. I even asked him if he wanted me to put Mike, the Verizon tech on the phone? Now, that’s a good Verizon commercial in the making.

So – To Comcast and Vonage – Bye, Loved it while it lasted, but we grew apart and you are not a match for Fiber.

And to Verizon, Please get your CS act together. Just because you provide the same services as cable companies does not mean you have to provide the same customer service experience! It takes your tech 8 hours to install your service, you need me to stick around for awhile to re-coup those kind of costs.

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Filed under Apple, Fios, Google, Love, MAc, new media, relationships, Verizon, wireless, wirless

Biggest Patent Goof in History?

The history of the original Bell Telephone patent for the telephone is thick with claims, lawsuits and races to the patent office. In the midst of all this, the information giant of the late 19th century had a perishable opportunity to become the information leader for another century. They blew it!

This has to be one of the biggest examples of “Innovators dilemma” in history.

AlexanderGrahamBellFacing competing patents and an incomplete invention, in 1877, Bell and his supporters offered to sell the Patent for the telephone to Western Union for $100,000. The offer was refused.
In 1876, Alexander Graham Bell and his financial backer, Gardiner G. Hubbard, offered Bell’s brand new patent (No. 174,465) to the Telegraph Company – the ancestor of Western Union. The President of the Telegraph Company, Chauncey M. DePew, appointed a committee to investigate the offer. The committee report has often been quoted. It reads in part:
“The Telephone purports to transmit the speaking voice over telegraph wires. We found that the voice is very weak and indistinct, and grows even weaker when long wires are used between the transmitter and receiver. Technically, we do not see that this device will be ever capable of sending recognizable speech over a distance of several miles.
“Messer Hubbard and Bell want to install one of their “telephone devices” in every city. The idea is idiotic on the face of it. Furthermore, why would any person want to use this ungainly and impractical device when he can send a messenger to the telegraph office and have a clear written message sent to any large city in the United States?
465 “The electricians of our company have developed all the significant improvements in the telegraph art to date, and we see no reason why a group of outsiders, with extravagant and impractical ideas, should be entertained, when they have not the slightest idea of the true problems involved. Mr. G.G. Hubbard’s fanciful predictions, while they sound rosy, are based on wild-eyed imagination and lack of understanding of the technical and economic facts of the situation, and a posture of ignoring the obvious limitations of his device, which is hardly more than a toy… .
“In view of these facts, we feel that Mr. G.G. Hubbard’s request for $100,000 of the sale of this patent is utterly unreasonable, since this device is inherently of no use to us. We do not recommend its purchase”

Western Union quickly regretted this decision and hired Thomas Edison to invent and patent devices to gain control of telephony. These patent efforts must have made money for lawyers, but in the end Bell prevailed.

William Vanderbilt – the son of Commodore Vanderbilt, controlled Western Union. They made their fortune from the railroads The telegraph’s biggest use was as a mechanism to enable better train scheduling, and secondarily as a general communications device.

William Vanderbilt sold Western Union to fellow railroad tycoon, Jay Gould, in 1880 for $10,000,000. The Great-Great-Grandson of Jay Gould founded Upoc Networks in 1999 and served as CEO through 2004. Entrepreneurial genes must run in that family.

In 2004, I joined Upoc as CTO and was appointed CEO in 2006.

dada_index3Dada S.P.A, an Italian based company, acquired Upoc. To the best of my knowledge Dada has no connection with railroads, but is a world leader in provider mobile media to cell phones, a distant relative to the original Bell Patent.

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Filed under CEO, mobile, Patents

Catch the Next Wave in Mobile

The key to the future lies firmly in what you do in the present.  This is the theme of every time bending sci-fi story.  Change what you do now and your future timeline will alter.   This axiom has never been as true in the mobile industry.  With a significant portion of the industry for value added services treading water (or drowning slowly) in this economy, those who position themselves for the recovery wave  will ride to success and be the next hot thing.  If you miss that first wave, you sink.

So, enough for the metaphors , Let’s get to the predictions.

Where should you be positioned for that enviable wave of profitability?

What will be hot? My top three

-Location Bases Services – For real this time!

minority_report2The prediction of profitable LBS services has been around for as long as LBS services.  The reason I am now bullish on LBS is the convergence of social networks, large screen devices and third party LBS providers for applications.    The visions of “Minority Report” like talking billboards or auto-generated coupons as you walk past a Starbucks have been the visions of non-visionaries.

Nice for Sci Fi but not in reality.

The popular navigation applications such as VZW navigator have been the first step in this lucrative market.  The integration of LBS with social networking will be the next.

LBS will be the  bridge that will bring virtual social networking back to the real world.  looptCool apps like a Google map that automatically shows you the location of your Facebook friends, alerts you if a “friend” is at the same bar, game or locale as you.
This is being developed by Loopt – today.

Legitimate dating services such as Match.Com could obviously benefit from such a service.

Will this make the anonymous rogue of virtual space more dangerous or more marginal?

Regardless, this is coming and will be big   Position your application for this and you will catch the wave
mobilescreen
-Mobile Commerce  – The rest of the economy meets wireless

In a previous article I talked about the tipping point of large screen devices and keyboards.  That trend coupled with “open networks” is a perfect storm for true commerce on mobile devices.  The industry will break out of the ringtone and wallpaper commerce “sand box” to address the other 99.9999% of the economy.

We will be evolving from using mobile as an alerting mechanism for transactions such as banking, trading, ebay, sports, etc.  The next step is to use the mobile as the transaction vehicle.

There are already several mobile ticketing trials for airlines and events underway.
Using your mobile as a truecredit-cards mobile wallet is just over the horizon.

The barrier that will have to be removed is the 40-50% share of revenue that carriers take for the existing mobile oriented content.   Credit Card rates for merchants are one tenth of what carriers charge.

The carriers have been providing both a billing service and a “mall owner” function.  Open Networking and free application choice changes this equation.   Either the carriers figure out how to be the clearinghouse for general commerce using their networks, or they will be ultimately bypassed.   The consumer should hope that the carriers continue to play a role and benefit from this increased commerce flow.  Simply , the more revenue the carriers can garner from commerce generation, the less the basic subscription rates have to be.

In either case the revenue flow through mobile will increase geometrically

-Advertising –The arrival of universally acknowledged Mobile ROI
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My view is that mobile advertising has been “Swift boated” by the other advertising media outlets.  This makes sense.  If I made my bonus purely on television, radio, print or web advertising, I would be less than happy for a share of those dollars, Euros or Yen to go to mobile platforms.  The claims that mobile advertising is impossible to measure seems rather suspect to me.  You can measure TV audience but can’t measure someone who clicks on your mobile ad?

With so much more content being produced for the larger screen mobile devices, the preferred monetization mechanism will be advertising first, subscription second.  The value chain for mobile ads, from creative, agency, platform, network, publisher and advertiser will mature and become fully mainstream.

More advertising revenue will benefit the traditional media giants as well as the new wave of mobile publishers such as game provider Cellufun.

Eventually the advertising model can help carriers transition the handset subsidy to the providers of goods and services.

These are my waves for the next couple of years, what do you thing I have missed?

Are you poised to cash in?

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