Monthly Archives: January 2010

The iPad– “Thou shall have apps…

The much heralded announcement of the iPad brings with it profits (or prophets?) as well as naysayers.  Perhaps Steve Jobs should have dressed in long ropes, grew a long white beard and walked down to the stage with a view of the mountains in the background?  The scene might be further played out with the masses dancing around and worshipping the netbook, the new deity of computing.

Steve Jobs raises his two iPads and declares that he has heard the word of the almighty and has declared that these tablets are the new iReligion.  Then he declares that he alone will now lead them from their transgressions to the land of endless apps.

(Note to Mr. Jobs:  If I recall my bible studies it took Moses another 40 years to find the Promised Land)

The announcement of the iPad will cause debates, forecasts, and predictions of successes and/or doom.  One thing is clear; the iPad is Apple’s near-term answer to the netbook phenomenon .  According to eWeek, netbook sales topped 33M in 2009 and Acer predicts sales in excess of 50M in 2010.   Apple sells about 3M Macs a quarter.

The sub $300 price point of the netbook did create a new category of device.  A device that is intimately linked to the trend of cloud computing.  Netbooks are good at email and web browsing.  They are not great entertainment devices.

The iPad promises to be as good as netbooks in what they do well – email and browsing – and also be a fun personal entertainment device.  The iPad wisely brings along over 100K apps at launch from the iPhone/iTouch world.

The question that the iPad raises for me is – how many personal connected devices can one person have?

The emergence of the smart phone category (iPhone, Android, Symbian, Blackberry, Palm, Windows Mobile) has created the instant connectivity to email, web and apps.  These devices fit in your pocket , are reasonably robust, and cheap to buy.

The laptop category, as Steve Jobs pointed out in his keynote, is another version of mobile computing.  With the weight of laptops hitting 5lbs and below, and with desktop computing capability, they have become the standard for students and professionals

Netbooks have created a bridge between the two major device areas as a lightweight computing device.  Now, enter the iPad at a $499 pricepoint.  Will the iPad grow the mobile Internet market or cannibalize other sales?

My prediction is market cannibalization.

The smart phone market is secure and growing.  The basic functions of instant and multimodal communications are clear and a continued focal point of human need.

The laptop and netbook markets are likely to be the feeding ground of iPad sales.

But how and why?

The answer is personal cloud computing.  The more the consumer environment transforms from local storage and processing to cloud storage/computing with local display and data entry – the better the market environment will be for the iPad.   The Apple entry into personal cloud computing – MobileMe – has been less than compelling.  This is especially true as Google, and others,  offer many of the same capabilities for free.

The iPad equation still requires one more piece of the puzzle to reach the Promised Land.  Steve Jobs will have to climb the mountain again and come back with another divine revelation.

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Filed under android, Apple, cloud computing, Content, holy grail, iPad, Isarel, microsoft, mobile, Moses, netbooks, smart phone, Smartphone, Steve Jobs, wireless

Clouds can make it rain, and follow you – Your Personal Cloud

Cloud computing is in the air. Wherever I turn people are talking about public clouds, private clouds, enterprise clouds. It seems that the makers of cloud technology can be the next generation of rainmakers. Truth be told, the computing concept of virtualization or even time-sharing is hardly a new one.

The natural ebb and flow of computing power and application requirements has swung to the point where most applications can share a single physical platform, thus virtualization and cloud computing. This trend coupled with a high speed connected internet enables cloud computing to become a metered utility.


All of that dark fiber and infrastructure that was placed during the dot.com boom is coming into play. But, as I said , nothing really new here.

Back in Graduate School, in a time when Carl Sagan was still gazing at the billions and billions of stars, my personal computing account was metered by compute cycle. If I designed a particular program poorly and ate up a lot of compute time, it might be time to whip out the credit cad and recharge the account. This methodology certainly made you a precise and careful program designer!

While this cloud trend is particularly relevant and profit making for companies such as Amazon, RackSpace, VMware, Microsoft, etc – what does it mean for the guy on the street?

The companion trend that will have more far reaching implications for the consumer is personal clouds. A personal cloud is a collection of your data and applications that is accessible from any device, anytime. This includes documents, photos, videos, games, TV and movies, applications and personal preferences. Everything that now sits on your semi-connected home or work PC, mp3 player or smartphone  just waiting for a hard-disk crash,  or the device to break or be lost ,will now be available in your personal cloud.

This has already started. Gmail, Hotmail, and other online mail providers store and manage your email accounts. Goggle docs can store any document type and has online versions of word processing, spread sheeting and presentation software. The majority of my TV viewing is done online. I do not even know the original air date of most of the shows that I retrieve form Hulu or the network sites.

The personal cloud has been complimented by netbooks and recently the iPad. (I will share my thoughts on the iPad in my next article).
A netbook should more accurately be called “My Cloud Viewer”.

What a netbook does well is get on the Internet and get to your stuff. The personal cloud does for the individual what enterprise cloud computing does for the corporation – it turns computing power and storage from device centric (PC, Laptop, Phone, TV) to a network utility. Display and connectivity is what will be needed in the future.

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Filed under advertising, cloud computing, Distribution, iphone, mobile, netbooks

Marketing is about choices – or is it? You decide

Marketing is about choices – or is it?

I recently went through a mental exercise of trying to determine what makes great marketing companies…. well…. great.   There are the obvious, and historic , iconic brands of the last 100 years – Coke,  Ford, AT&T,  McDonalds, Bud,  Chevy.  These brands have become part of the American DNA.  They will not necessarily be the great marketing giants of the next 20 years, but like that old pair of jeans, somewhat comfortable,  but  not what you will brag to your friends about.


None of these companies excelled at consumer choice.  Coke gives you with/without caffeine and  with/without sugar .  Ford and Chevy have nearly gone out of business by trying to offer too many choices, or more correctly, dictating what the consumer should choose.  Bud gives you regular or lite.  McDonalds is about the burger.  These companies have used massive advertising to direct the consumer choice to their pre-determined, limited set of options.


The companies that are dominating consumer choices now are Google, Apple, Facebook, Your Cable/Internet Providers, and Amazon.com.   They all seemingly put choice back in the hands of the consumer.  Google presents you with literally whatever you want.   Apple provides endless apps on the first really open smartphone.  Facebook opens a world of new and past friends and lets you choose who you want to be friends with, or not.   Cable television began to break up the monopoly of the networks by providing consumers 100’s (and now 1000’s) of channels of choice, coupled with video on demand.   In this era of consumer empowerment, does brand matter?


The conclusion I came to is yes , and now more than ever.  Fundamentally, marketing is about directing a consumers choice to a specific product or service.  Google only makes money when you choose to click on a product search that was highlighted via advertising.  Apple needs you to choose their marketplace for apps.  With thousands upon thousands of apps, what will be the mechanism for consumer adoption?  The featured list of apps on the iphone is really what? It is a mechanism to show you that you have unlimited choice , but then direct your choice in a specific manner.     Facebook is a huge social marketing machine that tries to influence your choices by having your friends influence you.  Influence the Influencers, and you direct choices.

Your Cable providers can offer you 100’s of channels, and as has been seen in recent days, can take those channels away.  They do however; seem to come the closest to providing relatively influence free choices. (Their advertising for paid VOD movies aside).


Amazon provides a brilliant mix of peer reviews and product recommendations.  They are really the more direct version of Google.  Search on what you want to buy, get a couple of choices.  If you don’t like what you see, they suggest close alternatives. While their marketing value proposition is about unlimited choice, their technology is all about limiting your choice, so that you will make a choice.


So, the older model had a marketing organization pre-determining a consumer’s choice through some form of market research and then marketing the heck out of those choices.  Now, companies give the illusion of unlimited choices, monitor and track the actual choices that are made and then capitalize on those choices and utilize more subtle earns to influence those choices.


Marketing is marketing.  The techniques evolve, but the goals remain the same.  Buy my product or service and not the other guys.

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Filed under advertising, Apple, E-Commerce, economy, facebook, mobile advertising, Mobile Application Stores, mobile commerce, smart phone, Smartphone, Social Media, social networking